I am currently applying to PhD programs. On paper, this is exciting. I am pursuing work I care about, imagining the possibility of becoming a clinical psychologist, and taking steps toward a future I have wanted for a long time. But excitement is not the only thing I feel.
I wonder whether I will like the program, whether I will fit in, and what my life will look like on the other side of this process. I am afraid of failure and also of the big change it will bring to my relatively stable life.
This combination of feelings feels confusing. Why can’t I feel excited about this possible change? Why am I overtaken by feelings of doubt? This makes me think: Maybe I am making the wrong decision. Maybe I am not ready. Maybe I do not really want this.
But anxiety does not always tell us whether a change is good or bad. Sometimes, it tells us that our current routines may be disrupted, and that we do not yet know what comes next.
This type of anxiety is referred to as anticipatory anxiety: the fear, tension, and mental rehearsal that arise before an important event occurs.
The Anxiety of Uncertainty
Changes in life often create a gap between our current, familiar life and the unfamiliar life that may replace it. When applying to graduate school, I do not know where I will start living, whether I will be faced with unbearable demands, or if I will be able to have a support system. My mind fills in this information by generating possible scenarios faster than real information becomes available.
Research suggests that uncertainty is a powerful part of anxiety. In a study by Hur and colleagues (2020), participants knew that an unpleasant event was coming but sometimes knew exactly when it would happen and sometimes did not. Uncertain timing produced stronger self-reported anxiety and greater physiological arousal than predictable timing. The brain’s response also involved a broad network associated with monitoring, anticipation, bodily arousal, and preparation. This may help explain why waiting for a major change can be so exhausting. Even when nothing is currently going wrong, the mind remains busy monitoring the future.
Growing Anxiety as the Outcome Gets Closer
Anxiety may intensify as an application deadline, moving date, first day, medical appointment, or important conversation approaches. One recent study offers an interesting explanation. Holley and colleagues (2024) examined what is called a hazard rate—roughly, the likelihood that an event will happen now, given that it has not happened yet.
In the study, participants learned about environments in which an unpleasant shock tended to occur at different times. They were then given the choice to remain in each environment and continue earning money or leave to avoid the possibility of a shock. Participants reported greater anxiety and were more likely to escape from the environment associated with a higher hazard rate, even during periods when the researchers held the immediate probability of shock constant. As a result of their avoidance, participants earned 17.8 percent less, on average, in the more anxiety-provoking condition (Holley et al., 2024).
The study involved physical threat rather than ordinary life transitions, so we should not assume that waiting for a graduate-school decision is psychologically identical to waiting for a shock. Still, the study illustrates an important principle: our experience of uncertainty changes over time. Anxiety can accumulate as an unresolved event begins to feel increasingly close.
Anxiety and Avoidance
When uncertainty becomes difficult to tolerate, we may become tempted to escape it. We might avoid applying, turn down an opportunity, postpone a move, cancel a first date, or decide that we “never wanted it anyway.” Avoidance can produce immediate relief. Once the uncertain situation is removed, the mind no longer has to wait for an unresolved outcome.
Holley and colleagues’ (2024) findings demonstrate this trade-off in a laboratory setting: participants gave up potential rewards to escape an uncertain, anxiety-provoking context. Their behavior was influenced not only by the objective probability of harm but also by how the threat unfolded over time.
In life, we may make similar choices to end the anticipatory anxiety. We might not be avoiding an opportunity but the feeling of not knowing what that opportunity will bring.
A useful question is: Am I moving away from something that is genuinely wrong for me, or am I moving away from the discomfort of not yet knowing? The answer will not always be obvious. But separating the opportunity from the anxiety surrounding it can help us make a more deliberate decision.
Making Room for Uncertainty
Maybe the goal is not to feel completely certain before moving forward. Positive change can be exciting and frightening at the same time. Anxiety may simply reflect the uncertainty that comes with stepping into a life we cannot fully imagine yet. The challenge is to make room for that discomfort without letting it decide for us. Sometimes, getting what we want requires tolerating the discomfort of not yet knowing exactly what comes next.
Kaynakça
- Holley, D., Varga, E. A., Boorman, E. D., & Fox, A. S. (2024). Temporal dynamics of uncertainty cause anxiety and avoidance. Computational Psychiatry, 8(1), 85–91.
- Hur, J., Smith, J. F., DeYoung, K. A., Anderson, A. S., Kuang, J., Kim, H. C., Tillman, R. M., Kuhn, M., Fox, A. S., & Shackman, A. J. (2020). Anxiety and the neurobiology of temporally uncertain threat anticipation. The Journal of Neuroscience, 40(41), 7949–7964.